Industry economic data analysis in 2019
2019-12-31
In 2019, the national economy ran generally steadily, with development quality steadily improving. Major expected targets were largely achieved, laying a solid foundation for the comprehensive completion of building a moderately prosperous society.
I. Continued Development of Industrial Production, Rapid Growth of High-tech Manufacturing and Strategic Emerging Industries
The total added value of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide increased by 5.7% year-on-year. By economic type, the added value of state-holding enterprises increased by 4.8%; that of shareholding enterprises increased by 6.8%; that of foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 2.0%; and that of privately-owned enterprises increased by 7.7%. By the three major categories, the added value of mining increased by 5.0%, manufacturing increased by 6.0%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increased by 7.0%. The added value of high-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries increased by 8.8% and 8.4% respectively year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size by 3.1 and 2.7 percentage points respectively. In December, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.9% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.58% month-on-month. In December, among the sub-indexes of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the production index, new orders index, and supplier delivery time index were 53.2%, 51.2%, and 51.1% respectively, all above the critical point. The manufacturing business activity expectation index was 54.4%, in a high prosperity range.
From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 5610.1 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to January-October; among them, in November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, while in October it decreased by 9.9%.
II. Rapid Development of the Service Sector, Good Growth Momentum of Modern Services
The nationwide service production index increased by 6.9% year-on-year. The added value of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, finance, and transportation, warehousing and postal services increased by 18.7%, 8.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively, exceeding the growth rate of the tertiary industry by 11.8, 1.8, 0.3, and 0.2 percentage points respectively. From January to November, the operating revenue of service enterprises above designated size increased by 9.4% year-on-year; among them, the operating revenue of strategic emerging service enterprises, technology service enterprises, and high-tech service enterprises increased by 12.4%, 12.0%, and 12.0% respectively, exceeding the growth rate of all service enterprises above designated size by 3.0, 2.6, and 2.6 percentage points respectively; the operating profit of service enterprises above designated size increased by 3.5%.
In December, the service business activity index was 53.0%, remaining above the prosperity line. Among them, the business activity index of railway transportation, accommodation, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, internet software and information technology services, finance, and leasing and business services were all in the high prosperity range above 55.0%. From the market expectation perspective, the service business activity expectation index was 59.1%, showing a good growth momentum.
III. Steady Growth of Fixed Asset Investment, Rapid Growth of High-tech Industry Investment
Nationwide fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) totaled 55147.8 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year. By sector, infrastructure investment increased by 3.8%, manufacturing investment increased by 3.1%, and real estate development investment increased by 9.9%. Nationwide commercial housing sales area was 17155.8 million square meters, down 0.1%; commercial housing sales amounted to 15972.5 billion yuan, up 6.5%. By industry, investment in the primary industry increased by 0.6%, investment in the secondary industry increased by 3.2%, and investment in the tertiary industry increased by 6.5%. Private investment totaled 31115.9 billion yuan, up 4.7%. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 17.3%, 11.9 percentage points faster than total investment, with investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increasing by 17.7% and 16.5% respectively. Investment in the social sector increased by 13.2%, 7.8 percentage points faster than total investment, with investment in education, culture, sports and entertainment increasing by 17.7% and 13.9% respectively. In December, fixed asset investment increased by 0.44% month-on-month.
IV. Counter-cyclical Growth of Foreign Trade, Continued Increase in the Proportion of General Trade
The total value of goods imports and exports was 31544.6 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 17229.8 billion yuan, up 5.0%; imports were 14314.8 billion yuan, up 1.6%. The trade surplus was 2915 billion yuan. General trade accounted for 59.0% of the total import and export value, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. Exports of electromechanical products increased by 4.4%, accounting for 58.4% of total exports. China's imports and exports with the EU and ASEAN increased by 8.0% and 14.1% respectively; imports and exports with countries along the Belt and Road showed good growth momentum, with total imports and exports with countries along the Belt and Road increasing by 10.8%, 7.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of total goods imports and exports. The export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 12421.6 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year.
V. Solid Advancement of Key Reforms and Tough Tasks, Continued Economic Transformation and Upgrading
The supply-side structural reform yielded significant results. In 2019, the national industrial capacity utilization rate was 76.6%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year; among them, the capacity utilization rate of oil and natural gas extraction and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing were 91.2% and 80.0% respectively, up 2.9 and 2.0 percentage points respectively year-on-year. The debt-to-asset ratio of enterprises decreased. At the end of November, the debt-to-asset ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 56.9%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. At the end of the year, the nationwide unsold commercial housing area was 4982.1 million square meters, down 4.9% from the end of the previous year. The unit cost and expenses of enterprises continued to decline from the beginning of the year. In terms of addressing shortcomings, investment in weak links grew rapidly. Throughout the year, investment in ecological protection and environmental governance and environmental monitoring and governance services increased by 37.2% and 33.4% respectively, exceeding total investment by 31.8 and 28.0 percentage points respectively. The vitality of micro-entities strengthened. In 2019, 23.77 million new market entities were registered, with an average of 20,000 new enterprises registered per day, an activity rate of around 70%, and a total of 120 million market entities at the end of the year. Key progress was made in the three tough battles. A total of 11.09 million rural impoverished people were lifted out of poverty. According to preliminary calculations, the proportion of clean energy consumption, including natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power, in total energy consumption increased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year; energy consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP continued to decline year-on-year, with a decrease of 2.6%. At the end of November, the nationwide local government debt balance was 21333.3 billion yuan, kept within the limit approved by the National People's Congress.
The economic structure continued to optimize.
The added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 53.9% of GDP, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, 14.9 percentage points higher than the secondary industry; its contribution to GDP growth was 59.4%. Consumption further consolidated its role as the main driving force of economic growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 57.8% to GDP growth, 26.6 percentage points higher than total capital formation. Residents' consumption upgraded and improved in quality. The national Engel coefficient was 28.2%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. In the nationwide per capita consumption expenditure, the proportion of service consumption expenditure was 45.9%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year.
Overall, the national economy maintained a generally stable and steadily progressing development trend in 2019. However, it is also necessary to recognize that the current global economic and trade growth is slowing down, sources of instability and risks are increasing, and structural, systemic, and cyclical problems are intertwined domestically, resulting in considerable downward pressure on the economy. In the next stage, we must adhere to Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as our guide, follow the decisions and deployments of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, uphold the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, adhere to the new development philosophy and promote high-quality development, adhere to supply-side structural reform as the main line, adhere to reform and opening up as the driving force, resolutely win the three critical battles, comprehensively implement the "Six Stability" work, and coordinate efforts to stabilize growth, promote reform, adjust the economic structure, improve people's livelihoods, prevent risks, and maintain stability, keeping the economy running within a reasonable range, ensuring the complete success of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and the 13th Five-Year Plan.
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