Compilation of Key Industry Trends in December 2019

2019-12-30


Wind power industry
Wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 131-140 meters are expected to become the mainstream model for new global installations in 2020.
Recently, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) released a global wind turbine rotor diameter database. This database is an extension of its 2018 Global Wind Energy Market Supply Side Report.
The GWEC wind turbine rotor database contains data on global wind turbine rotor diameters in 2014 and 2018, highlighting the changes in market share of different rotor sizes over the past five years. A data comparison clearly shows that the diameter of wind turbine rotors has continued to increase in recent years.
In 2014, wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 91-100 meters accounted for 41.9% of the global new installations of 2MW wind turbines that year, while those with a rotor diameter of 101-110 meters accounted for 37.8%.
In 2018, wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 121-130 meters accounted for 36.2% of the global new installations of 2MW wind turbines that year, while those with a rotor diameter of 111-120 meters accounted for 33.4%.
2MW wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 91-100 meters are designed for IEC II wind zones (average wind speed 7.5-8.5 m/s), while 2MW wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 111-130 meters are designed for IEC III wind zones (average wind speed 6.0-7.5 m/s) or lower wind speed areas. Over the past five years, the global market share of 2MW wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 111-130 meters has increased tenfold, indicating that more wind turbines are being installed in low-wind-speed areas.
China is the main driver of the growth in global wind turbine rotor diameter. In 2018, 80% of the 6,691 2MW wind turbines installed globally were located in China, and more than half of these had rotor diameters of 120 meters or more.
In May 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission introduced a new on-grid electricity price policy for wind power and set a clear roadmap for the elimination of subsidies for onshore wind power in China: onshore wind power projects approved after January 1, 2021, will no longer receive subsidies. To better reduce costs in preparation for the era of grid parity, at the Beijing International Wind Energy Conference held from October 21-24 this year, 14 wind turbine manufacturers launched more than 30 new models, with the smallest rotor diameter reaching 136 meters. Because China is the largest market for new wind power installations globally, GWEC believes that wind turbines with a rotor diameter of 131-140 meters will become the mainstream model for new global installations in 2020.

Top 10 Offshore Wind Turbine Models of 2019 Released: Half Made in China
Recently, Wind Power Monthly, a leading global wind energy publication, released its list of the best offshore wind turbine models of 2019. The organization stated that offshore wind turbine models have entered the double-digit (megawatt) era for the first time.

GE Haliade-X 12MW
GE's 12MW Haliade-X direct-drive prototype was installed in the Port of Rotterdam, Netherlands, in the second half of 2019. This groundbreaking new offshore wind turbine sets several new standards for the wind energy industry.
First is the massive permanent ring generator, with a diameter of approximately 11 meters. Second is the 12MW rating, although the prototype allows for 12-14MW, and insiders claim the turbine has delivered at the 14MW level.
Third, the near 220-meter rotor has reached a new world record (permitting regulations are 218.2 meters), with each 107-meter-long blade weighing 55 tons. This, along with the nacelle mass cited in the permit documents at 600 tons, adds up to a total mass of 850-875 tons.
The GE Haliade-X 12MW series has undoubtedly become the "giant" of today's offshore wind turbine industry.

Siemens Gamesa 11.0-193 DD Flex (11MW)
Siemens Gamesa recently announced that its upgraded 11MW 11.0-193 DD Flex has won a contract for 140 units.
This upgrade narrows the gap with GE's 12MW Haliade-X and will enter commercial production in 2022.

Dongfang Electric D10000-185 (10MW)
The typhoon-resistant direct-drive D10000-185/S has a rotor diameter of 185 meters and is the first Chinese-made 10MW offshore wind turbine. The fully enclosed outer rotor generator operates at a 3.15kV medium voltage level, while the industry semi-standard is approximately 1kV.

Top 10 Offshore Wind Turbine Models of 2019:
GE Haliade-X 12MW, SG 11.0-193DD, Dongfang D10000-185, Goldwind GW175-8.0MW, MHI Vestas V174-9.5MW, Mingyang SE7.25-158, Envision EN-161/5.2, Mingyang SE8.0-10-180, SGRE SG8.0-167DD, MHI Vestas V164-9.5MW


Steel
Shanghai Nickel Futures Price Trend
From December 12, 2019, to January 18, 2020, nickel prices generally showed a sideways consolidation pattern, with a high of 114,200 yuan/ton and a low of 106,810 yuan/ton. Nickel prices fluctuated around the average price of 110,505 yuan/ton, with a small amplitude and relatively stable prices.

National Steel Production Data Statistics for December 2019
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in December 2019, China's average daily crude steel output was 2.718 million tons, average daily pig iron output was 2.163 million tons, and average daily steel output was 3.365 million tons.
In December 2019, China's pig iron production was 67.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%; from January to December, pig iron production was 809.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%.
In December 2019, China's crude steel production was 84.27 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%; from January to December, crude steel production was 996.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%.
In December 2019, China's steel production was 104.33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%; from January to December, steel production was 1204.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%.

The Steel PMI for 2019 shows that industry development has slowed, and the growth rate of market supply and demand has declined.
In December, the Steel PMI was 43.1%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the growth rate of the steel industry continued to decline. From the perspective of sub-indexes, market demand tightened, enterprise production remained relatively stable, and raw material costs rose slightly, but enterprises were optimistic about the future. The annual average of the Steel PMI in 2019 was 47.2%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. Affected by multiple factors such as increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy and slowing global economic growth, the development of the steel industry in 2019 slowed down, the growth rate of market supply and demand declined, and corporate profits decreased.

In 2020, the most important factor affecting global nickel prices was the change in Indonesian supply.
In 2020, the core variable in global nickel supply was Indonesia, which included not only the reduction in Indonesian nickel ore supply, but also the increase in Indonesian NPI and Indonesian HPAL capacity. The most important factor affecting global nickel prices in 2020 was the change in Indonesian supply, followed by the Philippine nickel ore policy and China's new energy vehicle policy.
Indonesian NPI is the core engine driving the growth of global primary nickel supply and is the largest contributor to the increase in global primary nickel supply in the next few years. From 2019 to 2021, the newly added Indonesian NPI capacity is mainly divided into five parts: Tsingshan Indonesia, Delong Indonesia, Jinchuan WP, Weda Bay's pyrometallurgical project, and other companies.
Nickel HPAL capacity is the second largest area of ​​growth in global primary nickel supply, second only to NPI capacity. Currently, there are four major new nickel HPAL capacities globally: OBI Island project, Green Metals Sulawesi nickel-cobalt HPAL project, Huayou Cobalt industrial park project, and Morowali industrial park project.
It is estimated that Indonesian NPI production will increase by 200,000 nickel tons in 2020, with a capacity increase of 210,000 nickel tons; China's NPI capacity will continue to grow, but due to limited nickel ore supply, China's NPI production will decrease by 106,000 nickel tons; HPAL capacity will release 15,000 nickel tons of production, and the resumption of production will release 15,000 nickel tons of production.

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